Notebook computers have been outselling desktop PCs for years, but it’s probably a bit early to put desktops on deathwatch. They’re still popular among business users, gamers, and others… and according to new numbers from IDC, it looks like notebooks only outsold desktops by 1.6x in 2017.
But desktop PC shipments did fall below 100 million in 2017, and IDC expects the decline in desktop shipments to continue in the coming years.
The research firm does expect to see modest growth in notebook sales over the next 5 years, and somewhat better growth in the detachable tablet space where 2-in-1 devices like the Microsoft Surface Pro live.
But overall IDC estimates that total PC shipments (including notebooks, desktops, detachables, and slate PCs) will fall from 423.2 million in 2017 to 385.7 million by 2022.
Does this mean people are replacing PCs with smartphones and other forms of computing devices? Not necessarily… but it could be a sign that some folks aren’t replacing their existing PCs as often as they used to, and one reason for that could be an increased reliance on phones for many of the things we used to use a PC for.
Then again, smartphone sales slumped for the first time in Q4, 2017… so maybe people just aren’t upgrading any of their devices as often as they had been previously.
|Personal Computing Device Forecast, 2017-2022 (shipments in millions)|
|Product Category||2017 Shipments||2017 Share||2022 Shipments*||2022 Share*||2017-2022 CAGR*|
|Desktop + DT & Datacenter Workstation||97.8||23.1%||86.0||22.3%||-2.5%|
|Notebook + Mobile Workstation||161.6||38.2%||162.2||42.1%||0.1%|
|Traditional PC + Detachable||281.3||66.5%||282.9||73.3%||0.1%|
|Total Tablet (Slate + Detachable)||163.8||38.7%||137.5||35.6%||-3.4%|
|Source: IDC Worldwide Quarterly Personal Computing Device Tracker, February 28, 2018|
via The Register